[SMM Rebar Daily Review] Rebar Futures Break Through 3,000 Points, Where Will the Spot Market Go?

Today, rebar futures fluctuated downward, closing at 3004, down 1.67% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot prices, spot quotes in various regions mainly fell in the morning, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. In the afternoon, rebar futures fluctuated around the 3000 mark, showing no clear signs of rebound. Spot prices continued to decline, with some regions experiencing price drops of around 10-50 yuan/mt. Trading volume throughout the day was relatively weak. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, this week, blast furnace steel mills continued maintenance and production halts as planned, with a slight increase in the volume of steel mills undergoing maintenance. EAF steel mills faced poor profitability and mostly maintained production at off-peak electricity rates, slightly alleviating the overall supply pressure. On the demand side, end-users largely maintained purchasing as needed, with only a few regions experiencing concentrated procurement after the market closed due to accumulated demand orders from earlier periods. Overall, the current imbalance in the fundamentals of construction steel is not yet prominent. However, influenced by market sentiment in the futures market, confidence in the market is low. It is expected that spot prices of construction steel will remain in the doldrums in the short term, with subsequent focus on information regarding crude steel production cuts.